Numbers for NHS HCV Infections

Numbers Infected by the NHS and Survivor Estimates

Working with actual tested Hepatitis Prevalences disclosed by actual surveys on real patients and ignoring clap happy constructs and dreamed up probabilities.

We have a figure of 2% to 2.6% of UK Transfusion patients testing positive in the period of prison blood use up until 1986.

Multiplying this by the 500,000 annual transfusions done in 1985 would suggest at least 10,000 annual whole blood infections of Hepatitis C occurred in our prison blood harvesting years. With transfusions growing from 250,000 in 1958 to 500,000 in 1985 we project approximately 250,000 whole blood infections post war. This would be a level of infection bringing the UK into line with all the other developed nations who have done proper prevalencing using accurate WHO models and extensive transfused patient testing.

To this figure must be added infections from Dialysis, Transplants, Blood Products and Contaminated Equipment's which in other nations tend to comprise about 40% of total infections. Giving approximately 430,000 total Hepatitis C Infections.

Survivor Estimates

Substantial numbers of the infected have of course died from 1985 to 1995 it was noted that some 50,000 less people had Hepatitis C in the UK a drop from 1.07% to 0.93% prevalence was noted. Factoring this death rate in loses some 330,000 of the infected leaving at least 100,000 survivors in total from all forms of transmission route. With the deaths from their peers leaving a smaller pool of elders at raik and needing testing, it is extremely cost effective to offer Hepatitis C testing to all at risk from pre 1992 Surgery, Transfusion, Blood Product and Dialysis.

Compounding the 100,000 plus NHS survivors are at least 150,000 Healthcare Hepatitis C cases that have migrated into the UK.

Common Sense Prevalencing Model for Hepatitis C from NHS Transfusions Used By the Krever Inquiry

This method has a 20% error factor, unlike NHS Guesses which hit 95%. Other nations have spent millions legally sorting out the numbers and millions more on the research to develop this system.

To understand the infection levels from a health care services transfusions we have to see

First the amount of blood used by units in each transfusion as 4,
Second the amount of transfused patients and thus
Third the amount of infected transfused patients.

For example

the NHS used 2 million units in 1985
into 500,000 patients,
at the then admitted rate of 2.6% infected

you have 12,500 annual Hepatitis C infections from contaminated blood alone in 1985.

Then you add in dialysis, blood product, organ infections at the global average of 40%of transfusion infections and you have 8,125 plus 12,500 or20,125 annual infections a year in 1985 in the UK. Unlike our NHS guesstimate of 14,000.for a decade. This being the disaster peak.

The last 20% error factor needs UK research on the various independent wiggle factors up and down.

For instance down wiggles

Wastage of units, 1%
Patients clearing Hepatitis C naturally, 20%
overuse by patients 0%
Death by age of patients 5000 HCV deaths a year are noted 1%

Or wiggles up

contamination from other blood products, organs, patients
contamination by equipments tainted by the infected blood

On the right is a basic prevalencing of the UK Contaminated Blood Disaster from 1970 to 1992 using the WHO/Krever Model. Seeing unit usage at 1.3 million in 1970 at 2.6% HCV positive causing 8,450 infections that year, increasing until in 1985 9,690 HCV infections were occurring. Thereafter the ceasing of prison blood donations dropped infections to 4000 a year at 1% HCV positive dwindling from 1990 with the advent of anti HCV testing to full screening in 1992.

Then adding a 15% clear factor and a 50% die factor and a 10% high user factor leaves 59,997 survivors from whole blood transfusions.

then adding Dialysis, Blood Products, Transplants, C-sections, sundries and the 1945 to 1969 survivors gives 129,257 surviving in 2008.

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